Two timepieces set new auction records at the most recent Sotheby’s watch sale in Hong Kong, while nearly half of the lots sold above their high estimates.
A Patek Philippe Ref. 2526, the first self-winding wristwatch from collector J.B. Champion, brought in HKD 5.7 million ($729,977), within its estimated range, Sotheby’s said Monday. Meanwhile Cartier’s Paris Cloche, No. 1/1, fetched HKD 1.7 million ($210,882), more than four times its high estimate. Both set a record for the highest auction amount for the specific model, Sotheby’s noted.
In total, the April 7 Hong Kong Important Watches auction garnered HKD 126.3 million ($16.1 million). Over two-thirds of buyers were from China and the US, the auction house noted.
Meanwhile, the top lot of the auction, a Patek Philippe Ref. 2499 made in 1960, saw fierce bidding between participants in the room and on the phone. That piece, which sold within its estimated range, went for HKD 8 million ($1 million) after nearly 20 bids.
Watches of Switzerland’s group revenue soared 25% for the full fiscal year as it expanded its store network and demand for luxury timepieces rose.
The UK-based retailer achieved sales of GBP 1.54 billion ($2.02 billion) for the 52 weeks that ended April 30, the company said last week. That amount is a record for the firm and has placed it “significantly ahead” of where it expected to be when it released a long-term strategic plan in 2021, it explained.
Sales grew 10% in the UK and Europe to GBP 890 million ($1.17 billion), driven by the opening of 15 new UK showrooms, as well as its first in Germany. In the US, revenue jumped 52% to GBP 653 million ($855 million), with the company opening six mono-brand shops and a Rolex store. The US now represents 42% of total group revenue, the company noted. The rise was also the result of increased appetite for luxury watches, which continues to outpace supply. Watches of Switzerland’s client registration for timepieces is growing, as is the average selling price per piece, it said.
Profit for the period advanced 21% year on year to GBP 121.8 million ($159.5 million).
“Luxury watch sales grew 28% year on year, representing 87% of group revenue,” said Watches of Switzerland CEO Brian Duffy. “Luxury jewelry sales increased at a more modest 10% in the year, reflecting a tougher macroeconomic backdrop and focus on full-price sales. Following two years of exceptional performance, sales are significantly ahead of plan, by over GBP 200 million [$261.9 million].”
During the year, Watches of Switzerland also opened five shops in Sweden and Denmark, and a boutique in Ireland. In fiscal 2024, it will debut a flagship Rolex store on London’s Old Bond Street and a shop in Manchester, UK, as well as a joint venture with watch brand Audemars Piguet. The company expects revenue of between GBP 1.65 billion ($2.16 billion) and GBP 1.7 billion ($2.23 billion) for the full year.
Pre-owned timepieces are beating jewelry at auction and outselling hard-to-get newer models.
The pre-owned watch market is having a banner year. The five top auction houses for the category — Phillips, Sotheby’s, Christie’s, Antiquorum and Bonhams — finished 2021 with a combined total of CHF 634 million ($646 million) in watch sales, according to The Mercury Project, a study by auction-focused consulting firm Hammertrack. In the first half of 2022, the five houses sold CHF 379 million ($386 million) worth of watches — 47% more year on year than 2021 and 133% more than the first half of 2019.
This year is likely to set a new record, surpassing the $900 million mark, the study says — and that doesn’t include sales by non-auction dealers. Secondhand-timepiece vendor WatchBox, for example, posted sales of $310 million in 2021. Its tally for the first half of 2022 was $200 million, and the projected figure for the full year is $400 million.
A collector’s market The boom is partly due to organic growth from a steadily burgeoning community of collectors with no qualms about buying pre-owned watches. Over the past five years, online resale platforms for luxury timepieces have evolved from bulletin-board-style marketplaces run by largely anonymous sellers, to organized professional dealers who own, authenticate, restore and service their inventory. And the scale of that inventory has exploded: A 2021 study by McKinsey & Company valued the secondhand watch market at $18 billion in 2019, predicting a jump to $32 billion by 2025.
In fact, watches now outpace jewelry at auction: Auction sales of pre-owned jewelry rose 55% in 2021, while watch sales doubled, according to Hammertrack. In 2022’s first half, jewelry sales were up only 8% year on year against watches’ 47%.
The other main factor driving the boom in pre-owned timepieces is the shrinking number of new ones at retail. Brands are producing fewer watches, mainly offering limited editions at premium prices, and that puts many new models beyond the reach of most collectors. Hot commodities like the Rolex Daytona are obtainable only through waiting lists, which can be decades long. In contrast, a buyer could get a nice secondhand Rolex Daytona or other coveted model right now, online or at auction.
Outrageous prices The Rolex Daytona and Patek Philippe Nautilus are prime examples of how some watches have become commoditized. Patek discontinued the Nautilus Ref. 5711-1A with blue dial in 2021 — partly because it was overshadowing the rest of Patek’s collection, including the company’s elite complications, and partly because the hype was elevating prices to absurd levels, many times beyond retail. While the Daytona is still in production, it has been selling for up to five times its retail price, which makes it ripe for speculators.
That said, the Daytona and the Nautilus are exceptions, and over the past year, prices for these models have retreated from the all-time highs they reached in early spring 2022.
Some dealers welcome the correction.
“It’s been a wild ride the last few years, and I, for one, am looking forward to the watch market getting back to normal,” says Ken DeVaul, director of timepiece operations for retailer International Diamond Center (IDC) in Clearwater, Florida. “I got tired of talking about watches through the financial-commodity lens of resale value. I got into this business because I really enjoy watches, not because it outpaced the stock market.”
The era when a “few flippers” could buy a watch at list price “and make an easy $20,000 or more by selling to us dealers is pretty much over,” he continues. “In fact, all Rolex sports models have come down in price over the past year, inching back to [the manufacturer suggested retail price (MSRP)], where they typically lived in the past.”
Dealer Eric Wind of Florida-based Wind Vintage describes “the pre-owned hysteria” as “not much different than people paying crazy amounts for cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The speculators were mainly active in the primary retail market, and they aren’t true collectors. The real collectors are in the vintage and independent markets.” His advice to consumers: “I personally would not recommend paying huge premiums over retail price for modern, currently produced watches right now. I am not bullish [about the value of goods on the secondary market].”
Steel and small brands The Daytona and Nautilus hype may have subsided, but it’s left its mark: a lingering preference for stainless steel sports watches.
“Steel sports models have been super popular for several years now,” says Leigh Zagoory, a watch specialist at Sotheby’s. “But trends are cyclical, and true collectors covet watches for different qualities. They’re looking for more rare examples of specific models, and those vintage pieces can only be sourced on the secondary market.”
The recent surge also shed some light on a hitherto more niche corner of the pre-owned market: independents and smaller brands. More collectors are discovering these watchmakers’ superior technical prowess and craftsmanship, especially compared to the hype models. As a result, interest in brands that were almost unheard of 10 years ago is soaring.
The top 10 watch brands that sold at auction in 2021 were a mix of established elite and smaller independents, according to the Mercury Project study. Patek Philippe was the clear leader, with 378 lots netting a total of CHF 338.8 million ($350.8 million). Next came Audemars Piguet, Rolex, F.P. Journe, A. Lange & Söhne, Richard Mille, Cartier, Greubel Forsey, Omega, and Vacheron Constantin.
Uptick in demand Bidders are interested in rare, top-quality watches, especially those with private-collection provenance, and they’re still willing to pay top dollar. Last year at auction, 29 lots surpassed the $1 million mark — a result that would have been rare 10 years ago. Phillips, Christie’s and Sotheby’s saw record sales in 2021. Among the auction houses, Phillips in Association with Bacs & Russo is leading the pack with a 33% market share, followed by Christie’s, Sotheby’s, Antiquorum and Bonhams.
“Over the last number of years, everything was seemingly on fire, with unprecedented demand across the board for both the primary and secondary markets,” says WatchBox CEO Justin Reis. “But we have witnessed a substantial increase in activity across the $50,000 to $100,000-plus spectrum. Consumer interest has markedly increased for high-end independent brands, with no signs of a forthcoming slowdown.”
Paul Boutros, head of watches for the Americas at Phillips, has found that “demand continues to be extremely strong for rare, best-quality collectors’ watches — especially in vintage and independents. For modern-production watches, prices achieved in our spring 2022 auction season were in line with the results we saw a year earlier.” Indeed, he adds, “those prices were more realistic than the peaks seen on the secondary market in early 2022 — though still significantly above retail in most cases.”
For dealers, the only downside of the surging secondhand market is keeping up with demand. There are rumors that retailers are training their staff in how to let customers down gently when their choice of model is not available.
“More people are interested in watches than ever before,” says Wind. “So my challenge is just continuing to engage with current and prospective clients. I get thousands of emails and messages each day, wanting to speak about watches.”
Rolex remains king We asked three dealers to name their Holy Grail watches for collectors right now, and all of them chose models by Rolex, proving that the brand with the crown on the dial still reigns supreme.
“I predict the Rolex James Cameron Deepsea will be discontinued. When this happens, it will become an instant collectible.”
Ken DeVaul Director of timepiece operations, IDC In 2012, a special Deepsea model, the Deepsea Challenge, accompanied filmmaker and explorer James Cameron on his 10,908-meter dive in the Mariana Trench. The commemorative D-Blue version of the Deepsea was introduced in 2014 to mark the event. It goes for $14,500 at retail, while models on the pre-owned market sell for up to $16,000.
“2023 will be the 60th anniversary of the Rolex Daytona, so this model is my pick as the one to watch next year.”
Paul Boutros Head of watches for the Americas, Phillips in Association With Bacs & Russo Introduced in 1963 to mark Rolex’s sponsorship of the Daytona Speedway, the Oyster Perpetual Cosmograph Daytona has become the world’s most coveted sports watch. The latest model has a black Cerachrom (ceramic) bezel, a state-of-the-art movement and a black Oysterflex rubber strap. It sells for about $46,000 at retail, and up to high six figures on the pre-owned market, depending on the model and provenance.
“Whatever Rolex comes out with will be hot, especially this year’s new left-hand GMT-Master II.”
Justin Reis CEO, WatchBox The new GMT-Master II is ideal for lefties, with the crown and the date window on the left of the case so it’s comfortable to wear on the right wrist. The green and black color combo is exclusive to this line, with the option of either a Jubilee or Oyster bracelet. It’s $10,500 at retail, or up to $40,000 on the secondary market.
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Swiss watch exports fell 11% year on year to CHF 1.59 billion ($1.78 billion) in January, the 12th consecutive monthly drop, as demand slowed in the US and in key Asian markets.
Shipments to the US declined 11% to CHF 183.3 million ($204.5 million), partly because strong figures in January 2020 created an unfavorable comparison, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said Thursday.
Supply to Hong Kong dipped 9% to CHF 169.3 million ($188.9 million) last month as market conditions deteriorated, while exports to the UK and Japan slumped due to the tightening of Covid-19 measures, it added. January also had one fewer business day than the same period a year earlier.
The negative figures outweighed a 58% jump in orders from China, for a total of CHF 255 million ($284.5 million), mirroring a continued recovery of the retail sector on the mainland.
Globally, cheaper watches saw a sharper downturn, with shipments of timepieces priced under CHF 200 ($223) sliding 31% by value. Exports of watches with wholesale prices ranging from CHF 200 to CHF 500 ($558) decreased 26%, while goods valued between CHF 500 and CHF 3,000 ($3,347) suffered a decline of 25%. Shipments of items above that price level slipped 4.1%.
The numbers point to a worsening of the situation versus December, when the global decline was the mildest since the start of the pandemic as Chinese demand rose. The trade hasn’t witnessed a year-on-year increase since January 2020.
“The result for the month will nonetheless have only a limited effect on the upward trend seen since last summer, and a return to significant growth is expected over the next few months,” the federation noted.
