India will lead demand for natural diamonds in 2024, says David Kellie, CEO of Natural Diamond Council (NDC), as US buyers increasingly switch to lab grown.
“The Indian market remains the strongest growth market in the world because of its strong financial position and changing demographics,” he told The Economic Times, in India.
“Indian women are now financially stronger, and they are driving the demand. The key economic indicators in the US are not yet favourable for a demand recovery in diamond purchase.”
Kellie (pictured) predicts a polarization between the natural and lab grown markets, with a price difference currently at 80 per cent to 90 per cent.
Natural diamonds will become increasingly rare, he said, with no new mines in prospect, and with miners digging deeper, and spending more, to reach remaining deposits.
De Beers reduced rough-diamond prices by an average of 10% to 15% at this week’s sight, aiming to stimulate sales and bring its rates more in line with the rest of the market, sources told Rapaport News.
The miner lowered prices by 5% to 10% for rough under 0.75 carats, with thinner or no reductions for the smallest items that produce melee, sightholders and other market insiders said Monday on condition of anonymity.
Rough weighing 0.75 to 2 carats saw reductions of approximately 10% to 15% on average, while prices of 2-carat and larger goods dropped about 15%, the sources added.
Select makeables — the 2- to 4-carat rough stones that produce SI2 to I2 diamonds — fell more sharply, with estimates ranging from 20% to 25%. This reflects the impact of lab-grown competition on mid-market US demand in the past year, sightholders explained. De Beers does not comment on pricing.
De Beers tends to sell less volume during a downturn and reduce prices only once the polished market has improved. The RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI™) for 1-carat diamonds slid 21% in 2023, the worst year on record for the category, but sightholders reported a moderate uptick in US demand since the holiday shopping season began, though Chinese orders remain weak.
The global market also stabilized as a result of India’s two-month voluntary freeze on rough imports, which ended December 15.
“[In the past, De Beers] didn’t want to change prices because they didn’t know [what the state of the] polished [market] was,” one of the sources commented. “They have an idea where polished is now, and have adjusted rough to polished.”
However, several sightholders said the drops did not go far enough, with De Beers’ prices still above those of outside tenders and auctions and also too high for many manufacturers to make a profit.
Even with the price reduction, the sources expected demand at the sight to be limited, with sales of around $300 million. The trading session, De Beers’ first of the year, began Monday and runs through Friday in Gaborone, Botswana.
Global diamond giant De Beers said it will go ahead with a planned $1 billion investment to extend the life of its flagship Jwaneng mine in Botswana, even as last year’s downturn in gem demand persists.
The Anglo American (AAL.L) unit and the Botswana government, which jointly own Debswana Diamond Company, have approved the spending that will convert the Jwaneng pit into an underground operation.
Debswana said in 2018 it planned an investment to extend the lifespan of the mine by 11 years from 2024. De Beers said the spending is necessary as long-term supply of rough gems is expected to tighten.
Angola last year started mining at its new Luele project, the biggest in the country and one of the world’s largest by estimated resources, despite depressed diamond demand.
“The global supply of natural diamonds is falling, so moving forward with the Jwaneng underground project creates new value for investors,” De Beers CEO Al Cook said.
Demand for rough diamonds has been weak in recent months with India – cutter and polisher of 90% of the world’s rough diamonds – asking global miners to stop selling it gemstones to manage accumulated stocks.
“This investment is aligned with our strategy to prioritise investments in the highest quality projects,” Cook said.
De Beers last year agreed a new diamond sales pact, which will see the government’s share of diamonds from the Debswana joint venture gradually increase to 50% over the next decade.
Africa-focused miners Gem Diamonds and Lucara Diamond have recovered big, high-quality Type IIa diamonds at their respective operations.
Gem Diamonds said on Thursday it had unearthed a 295-carat rough stone at its Letšeng mine in Lesotho, adding to a long list of diamonds over 100 carats found at the operation over the past two years.
The prolific mine is one of the world’s ten largest diamond operations by revenue. At 3,100 metres (10,000 feet) above sea level, Letšeng is also one of the world’s most elevated diamond mines.
Canada’s Lucara recovered a 166-carat rough in the Coarse X-Ray Transmission unit at its Karowe diamond mine in Botswana. The company said the precious stone was sourced from direct milling of ore from the South lobe of the mine.
The 166-carat rough diamond recovered at Karowe. (Image courtesy of Lucara Diamond.)
Lucara’s latest find is the 328th diamond over 100 carats found at Karowe since it began operations in 2012. Chief executive William Lamb said the recovery further supported the economic rationale for investing in the underground expansion project to extend the mine’s life to at least 2040.
The recoveries bring some positive news into a market affected by ongoing weak conditions, with prices for wholesale polished diamonds dropping 20% last year, which also dragged down rough diamond prices.
The International Gemological Institute’s laboratory in Tel Aviv recently detected a 6-carat lab-grown diamond that someone apparently was hoping to pass off as a natural stone.
The 6.01-carat, pear-shaped synthetic diamond was fraudulently inscribed with the Gemological Institute of America report number for a G-color natural diamond of the same size and shape, but with a few key differences, IGI said in a news release issued Tuesday.
First, the lab said, photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy, which is now widely used by grading labs to separate natural diamonds from lab-grown stones and to identify diamond treatments, shows a wavelength peak of 737 nanometers in the diamond (see chart below).
This is an indicator that the diamond was grown in a factory using the chemical vapor deposition process.
IGI photoluminescence spectra The photoluminescence spectra for the 6.01-carat lab-grown diamond recently examined by the International Gemological Institute
Second, when examined under a microscope, IGI graders saw a carbon inclusion where the feather was indicated on the clarity plotting diagram in the GIA report.
They also noticed a cloud inclusion, resulting in IGI giving the lab-grown diamond a lower clarity grade than VVS1, the clarity grade of the natural diamond.
Lastly, there was a discrepancy between the depth of the diamond IGI examined and the depth noted on the GIA report.
“Everyone in our industry must be vigilant,” said IGI CEO Tehmasp Printer, who took over as head of the lab in October after Roland Lorie retired.
“As attempted fraud increases, the need for ongoing verification is a necessary step to protect consumers from purchasing misrepresented gems and jewelry.”
Bruce Cleaver will leave his role as cochair of De Beers’ board of directors and will also relinquish his position on the board of the miner’s lab-grown diamond-manufacturing company, Element Six.
The move follows Cleaver’s exit as CEO in early 2023 after six years in the position. Cleaver’s appointment to the boards was to enable a smooth transition of leadership to his replacement, Al Cook, a De Beers spokesperson told Rapaport News.
Additionally, while on the board, “Bruce also supported the finalization of the commercial negotiations with the government of the Republic of Botswana,” the spokesperson said. “With the leadership transition complete, and with De Beers and Botswana having signed heads of terms for the new agreements, Bruce has delivered on those objectives, and so has stepped down from the board of directors.”
Cleaver will remain with De Beers in an advisory capacity, the spokesperson added. Duncan Wanblad, CEO of De Beers parent company Anglo American, will now be sole chair of the miner’s board of directors.
Lab growns and natural diamonds will coexist in the future, says Vipul Shah, chairman of the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC).
He was speaking at the IIJS Signature, which opened in Mumbai on Friday (5 January 2024).
“With natural diamonds, there is an aspiration, whereas lab-grown diamonds are for affordability, and for fun and fashion,” he said.
“So, it’s a completely different segment … It is not going to be that one is going to take over the other,” he said.
He noted that the supply of natural diamonds would reduce over time, with no new mines due to open and some deposits reaching the end of their lives.
He said the lab grown and natural consumer bases would complement each other.
“Natural diamonds are for those who have a desire for diamonds and they’re getting diamonds,” he said.
“Also, if you are looking for investment, you will choose natural diamonds. So, the idea is that once first-time buyers start with lab-grown diamonds, they will aspire to buy natural diamonds.”
The European Union on Wednesday imposed sanctions on Russia’s state-run diamond giant Alrosa and its CEO as part of a ban on imports of the precious stones over the Ukraine war.
The EU in December agreed to prohibit diamonds exported from Russia as it tightens sanctions to further sap the Kremlin’s coffers.
The 27-nation bloc added Alrosa, the world’s largest diamond mining company, and its chief executive Pavel Marinychev to a blacklist subject to a visa ban and asset freeze in the EU.
The EU said the company — which accounts for 90% of Russia’s diamond production — “constitutes an important part of an economic sector that is providing substantial revenue to the government.”
Russia’s diamond exports totaled around $4 billion in 2022.
The EU’s ban went into force on Jan. 1, targeting natural and synthetic diamonds exported from Russia.
A prohibition on Russian diamonds processed in third countries will be phased in by September.
The EU ban came after months of painstaking negotiations with G7 countries to set up a system to trace Russian diamonds.
Belgium, which is home to the world’s largest diamond trading hub, insisted the system needed to be put in place to make any embargo effective.
The EU has so far imposed 12 rounds of sanctions on Moscow since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Hong Kong authorities have arrested four people suspected of running a money-laundering syndicate that falsely declared synthetic diamonds as natural.
The operation, which authorities codenamed “Gem Crusher,” was the first money-laundering case using transnational diamond trading the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department has detected, the government organization said Thursday.
On December 19 and 20, customs raided eight premises across multiple areas in Hong Kong, including residential and business locations. So far, authorities have frozen HKD 8.2 million ($1.1 million) in assets belonging to those in custody.
Hong Kong customs officials were alerted to the scheme earlier this year and launched a financial investigation, exchanging information with authorities in India, the department explained.
Members of the crime syndicate had established diamond-trading companies in both Hong Kong and India. Throughout 2021, the syndicate exported low-value lab-grown diamonds from Hong Kong to India with fictitious declarations presenting them as high-value naturals.
The purpose was to “transfer significant amounts of suspicious funds from India to Hong Kong,” authorities alleged. The suspects laundered around HKD 500 million ($64 million), the department claimed.
During the raid, customs seized a “large quantity of suspected synthetic diamonds, a small quantity of natural diamonds, about HKD 1 million [$128,055] in cash, a number of mobile phones, computers, company [seals], checkbooks, bank cards, bank documents and trading documents” from the four suspects, authorities said.
The four men — believed to be the “masterminds, ring leaders and members” of the syndicate — were arrested on suspicion of “dealing with property known or reasonably believed to represent proceeds of an indictable offense.”
The investigation is ongoing, and further arrests cannot be ruled out, customs noted.
