Botswana’s central bank left its main lending rate unchanged on Thursday, saying the economy was expected to operate below capacity and not generate demand-driven inflationary pressures because of a slump in the global diamond market.
The Bank of Botswana held its Monetary Policy Rate at 1.90% for the second policy meeting in a row. The rate is based on a seven-day instrument.
“The economy will contract this year primarily due to the downturn in the global diamond market and moderately recover next year,” central bank Governor Cornelius Dekop told a news conference.
The southern African country’s economy is largely dependent on the export of diamonds, and declining earnings from the precious stone have limited government spending.
The central bank also lowered its primary reserve requirement to 0% from 2.5% due to significantly reduced liquidity in the banking system.
Dekop said inflation was expected to average 2.9% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, compared with forecasts of 2.8% and 3.1% given at the bank’s previous monetary policy meeting in November.
The Bank of Botswana prefers inflation between 3% and 6% over the medium term. Annual inflation stood at 1.6% in October.
The diamond industry is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by the rising popularity of lab-grown diamonds. Once considered a niche alternative, these scientifically engineered gems are now mainstream, offering a more affordable and ethically sourced option compared to their natural counterparts. This surge in demand is putting pressure on the traditional diamond market, challenging industry norms and reshaping consumer preferences.
Lab-Grown Diamonds and Their Impact on the Industry
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With consumers becoming more conscious of sustainability and ethical sourcing, lab-grown diamonds are increasingly seen as a viable alternative to mined stones. This shift in preference is sending shock waves through the traditional precious gems market, compelling industry players to adapt to evolving trends.
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Botswana’s government is forecasting a recovery in the diamond market later this year, and a consequent expansion of the country’s economy.
It shrank by 3.1 per cent in 2024, but according to vice president and finance minister Ndaba Gaolathe it is now expected to grow 3.3 per cent in 2025.
“This growth outlook is premised on recovery of the diamond industry, which is expected in the latter part of 2025, and continued positive sentiment in the non-diamond mining sectors,” he said yesterday (10 February) in his budget speech for 2025/26.
Diamonds account for around 80 per cent of Botswana’s export earnings and a third of total budget revenues.
De Beers and the Botswana government have finally reached agreement on the long-term mining and rough sales deals.
But their joint venture Debswana reported sales for the first three quarters of 2024 were down by 52 per cent.
In December, Gaolathe warned that Botswana’s economy could contract by 1.7 per cent during 2024 as a direct result of the diamond. Slump.
But he predicted better times ahead, with an expected rebound in the diamond market driving overall growth in 2025.
Video grab shows finance minister Ndaba Gaolathe delivering his 2025/26 budget.
De Beers, long associated with the glamour of natural diamonds, is now grappling with a fading shine. The rise of lab-grown diamonds, which have gained popularity among millennial and Gen Z consumers in India and worldwide from the US to China poses a significant challenge.
Lab-grown diamonds offer several advantages: they are 60-75% more affordable than natural diamonds, and as mass production increases, prices continue to drop. Moreover, they share the same chemical composition as natural diamonds and are visually indistinguishable to the naked eye.
New rules announced by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will require all diamond importers to declare the country of origin of all goods.
The move, to be implemented in April, is aimed at enforcing sanctions on Russian diamonds.
Importers have been required, since last March, to certify that their goods are not Russian, but not to disclose where they are from.
The G7 nations – including the US and EU – imposed a ban on Russian diamonds of 1 carat or more from March 2024 and on goods of 0.5 carats or above from September 2024.
Despite the sanctions, Russia is still thought to be exporting 40 per cent of its diamonds output because they are below the size threshold or industrial quality.
The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said in a statement that it plans to start collecting additional data in April on jewelry imports (and seafood) requiring filers to provide the country of mining.
They’ll be required to upload a PDF document on official company letterhead to CBP’s automated commercial environment (ACE) document image system.
The requirement applies to both loose diamonds and jewelry containing diamonds. Jewelry imports without diamonds are exempt.
The carat size threshold is not mentioned in the CBP announcement.
A high-profile Indian delegation led by Shri R. Arulanandan, Director, Department of Commerce, Government of India actively participated in the “Opportunities in India” event, hosted by the Consulate General of India in Cape Town and the Government of India. The event was held on the sidelines of the prestigious Mining Indaba 2025.
The delegation, which included Shri Rajat Wani, Regional Director – Surat, GJEPC, highlighted the potential of Special Notified Zones (SNZs) for diamonds in Mumbai and Surat, focusing on their role in simplifying trade processes. Stressing the need to reduce the number of intermediaries in the diamond value chain, they underscored the importance of facilitating more direct trade of rough diamonds between India and African mining nations.
Direct auctioning of diamonds in SNZs was presented as a mutually beneficial strategy. Such a framework would enable African mining countries to secure higher returns on their diamond exports while allowing Indian buyers greater access to competitively priced rough diamonds.
The discussions also explored the necessity of consignment exports, a move that could align with African nations’ policies, such as “temporary export” mechanisms. The Indian delegation expressed optimism about overcoming logistical and regulatory challenges, ensuring a streamlined process that benefits all stakeholders.
A diamond bracelet gifted by Michael Jackson to Elizabeth Taylor sold for $147,000, almost double its high estimate.
The diamond line bracelet, set with 27 graduated radiant-cut yellow-tinted diamonds was expected to fetch $61,000 to $86,000 (£50,000 to £70,000).
It sold on 30 January at the Woolley & Wallis auction house, in Sailsbury, southern England.
Taylor (who died in 2011) and Jackson (who died in 2009) were close friends for many years. Taylor was godmother to Jackson’s children Paris and Prince, and Jackson, the King of Pop, gifted her a number of jewelry pieces over the years. Among them was this bracelet, with a central diamond weighing 3.38 carats.
The bracelet was sold previously in December 2011, for $182,500, at Christie New York’s The Collection of Elizabeth Taylor. It raised $116m (way beyond its $20m estimate) and broke the record for any collection of jewelry sold at auction.
Marielle Whiting, jewelry specialist at Woolley & Wallis, described the bracelet as a “beautiful and highly wearable diamond bracelet with truly legendary provenance that continues to live on”.
India has been emerging as a bright spot for the cut and polished diamonds amidst a slowdown in key markets such as the US and China, Amit Pratihari, managing director, De Beers India told Reuters on Wednesday.
India is the world’s largest centre for cutting and polishing diamonds, accounting for nine out of 10 diamonds polished globally, according to Indian government data.
However, the country’s cut and polished diamond exports fell this year because of weak demand from China and the US, forcing the industry to focus on the growing domestic market that surpassed China last year to become the world’s second-largest.
“China has completely slowed down in the luxury segment … We see India growing very strongly,” Pratihari said in an interview.
De Beers, a unit of Anglo American, is the world’s top diamond producer by value and India’s number one supplier of rough diamonds.
However, there were some early signs of recovery in the US and “big growth” in the Middle East, Pratihari said.
“In next couple of months, we expect recovery,” he said.
Weak exports demand for polished diamonds forced Indian processors to trim imports of rough diamonds by 22% to $7.9 billion during April to December, according to India’s Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC).
De Beers is adjusting prices of rough diamonds to support the midstream industry – companies that buy rough diamonds from miners and sell them after cutting and polishing to retailers – in the face of polished diamond prices falling more than those of rough diamonds, he said.
“Miners are controlling the supply so more rough does not come into the market that would put additional pressure on the polished prices. But the pressure on polished prices is in midstream as in retail there is no change,” he said.
India’s cut and polished diamond exports fell by 8.3% to $9.76 billion in April-December compared with the 2023 period, according to GJEPC.
Gem Diamonds today (29 January) reported a dip in quarterly revenue but a year-on-year increase of 10 per cent, boosted by a flurry of high-value recoveries.
The UK-based miner sold $152.8m of rough in 2024, compared to $139.4m in 2023. Sales in Q4 last year were $32.2m, down almost 25 per cent on Q3.
Gem’s Letseng mine, in Lesotho, is the highest dollar per carat kimberlite diamond mine in the world.
During the year Gem sold 13 +100-cts diamonds recovered during the year, compared with just five the previous year.
The mine has averaged eight +100-cts since it started operations 17 years ago.
Six diamonds sold for more than $1m during Q4, the company said, contributing $11.6m. The highest price achieved in the quarter was $45,077 per carat for a 3.52-carat pink diamond.
Average price per carat during FY2024 was $1 ,334, a 4 per cent increase on the previous year. Th e number of carats recovered fell 4 per cent to 105,012.
A brazen diamond robbery at Namibia Desert Diamonds (Namdia) early on Saturday evening and involving what is suspected to be the company’s largest-ever consignment of precious stones received, has resulted in two fatalities and two arrests.
Although the figure could not be independently verified, a person with intricate knowledge of the matter said the diamonds are worth more than US$15 million (about N$280 million).
This consignment was reportedly delivered to Namdia’s premises by the Namibia Diamond Trading Company (NDTC). NDTC is a 50:50 joint venture between the government and De Beers Namibia Holdings. It was formally conceived in January 2007 following an agreement to sort, value and market Namibian diamonds.
Responding to questions yesterday, NDTC CEO Brent Eiseb could not provide any details for security reasons.
“For safety and security reasons, NDTC does not provide details of rough diamond deliveries/movements. Kindly refer all incident-related queries to Namdia,” Eiseb said.
The Namibian Police have said the exact amount of diamonds stolen in the robbery is unknown, pending an inventory by Namdia.
“The suspects fled with an unspecified amount of Namdia’s diamonds, whose value is still to be ascertained. There were four suspects involved in the robbery. Two suspects are currently on the run. One suspect is in police custody. One suspect died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound during the incident,” Alisa Amupolo said in another statement issued late yesterday. According to sources familiar with Namdia’s modus operandi, the company was warned to tighten up its security.
This, however, never happened. “There were several warnings last year that the security left a lot to be desired. The staff has been worried about this. The board chairman [Justus Hausiku] warned Alisa Amupolo [CEO] several times to focus on security,” said the source, who preferred to speak on condition of anonymity.
Despite the advice to improve its security, Namdia’s offices were guarded by a single security guard only identified as Herman, who was seconded from a local security company.
During the heist, Herman was handcuffed, but somehow managed to notify people at neighbouring premises to call the police, claiming “we’re being robbed”.
Execution
The police confirmed the execution-style killing of a Namdia protection officer during the robbery, as well as one of six perpetrators who succumbed to injuries sustained during the theft. “It is with deep sadness that we confirm an attempted armed robbery at our premises earlier today [Saturday], which tragically resulted in the loss of one of our valued staff members. We are cooperating fully with law-enforcement, and a thorough investigation is currently underway. As this is an ongoing investigation, we are working closely with the relevant authorities to establish the facts surrounding the incident. Namdia remains fully committed to ensuring the safety and security of both its staff and diamonds,” Amupolo said.
Crime report
The weekend police crime report issued yesterday stated that the robbery and murder occurred between 17h00 and 18h00 at the Namdia head office in Klein Windhoek. The police say armed suspects broke into the Namdia premises through yet-to-be determined means.
The police further said the robbers held staff hostage by tying them up before stealing an undisclosed amount of diamonds.
“In one of the storerooms, the supervisor, who is a protection officer, was found dead with his hands and legs tied up and his face covered with a shopping bag, and a gunshot wound inflicted to the head. He was identified as Francis Eiseb, a 57-year-old Namibian male. His next of kin have been informed of his death,” the police crime report states.
Police said one of the robbery suspects was found with what appeared to be two gunshot wounds. Late yesterday, police identified Max Endjala as the deceased suspect who was allegedly involved in the Namdia heist. His next of kin have also been informed of his death. He was an auditor at a local firm, according to reports.
Law-enforcement officers at the scene collected four firearms and some knives. The investigation is ongoing, with the police appealing to members of the public who might have any information about the robbery or the suspects to pass it on to the relevant authorities.
Furthermore, sources said staff at Namdia were called in yesterday for interrogation on the robbery, which some people suspect took place based on inside information regarding the amount of diamonds on the premises at the time.
Family ties
State broadcaster NBC also reported that one more arrest had been made in connection with the robbery. The male suspect is employed as a security officer at Namdia and is related to Endjala, the suspect who allegedly shot himself in the head, NBC reported.
Fond memories
In a social media post on Sunday, Namdia’s former CEO Kennedy Hamutenya hailed Eiseb as one of the hardest-working and most committed employees during his time.
Eiseb, he reminisced, would perform above and beyond the call of duty. “He’d even volunteer to drive clients to and from the airport to ensure their safety. He was kind and cordial to all other colleagues, and was full of respect,” Hamutenya’s post reads.
Also taking to his WhatsApp social media platform yesterday was Bryan Eiseb, the Head of the Financial Intelligence Centre and a brother of the late Francis, who said the Eiseb family has “forgiven those who are responsible for Francis’ horrendous death. You [Francis] have paid the ultimate price for Namibia.”
Namdia was founded by the government in 2016 to independently market and sell Namibia’s diamonds on the international market. The Namdia headquarters is considered one of the most secure in Windhoek, considering the value consignments it regularly handles. It is estimated that Namdia annually sells some N$2 billion worth of diamonds on the international market. Read more: ‘N$280m gems’ stolen in Namdia heist https://neweralive.na/n280m-gems-stolen-in-namdia-heist
