Retail sales at Hong Kong based jeweler Luk Fook soared in the third fiscal quarter as tourism recovered and the price of gold surged.
Sales grew 46% year on year for the three months that ended December 31, 2023, the company said last week. The rise comes on the back of a mounting revival in visitor traffic to the municipality since early last year, when the border reopened as the latest Covid-19 restrictions eased. Sales were up 40% compared to the same period of 2019, prior to the start of the pandemic.
“Following the complete reopening of borders among Hong Kong, Macau and the mainland, the Hong Kong and Macau market has shown a sustained recovery,” the company reported. “Despite an annual rise of over 14% in the average international gold price overall same store sales for gold products still displayed significant growth of 80%.”
In Hong Kong and Macau specifically, retail sales spiked 97%, with same-store sales those at branches open for at least a year gaining 80%. On the mainland, those figures increased 37% and 18% respectively.
Same store sales of gold products jumped 94% in Hong Kong and Macau, as the rising price of gold led to higher value transactions. In that category, fixed price gold jewelry as opposed to gold sold by weight rose 88%, while diamond-set jewelry went up 25%.
In China, same store sales of gold products advanced 22%. Fixed priced gold jewelry was up 23%, somewhat offsetting a 35% drop in diamond-set jewelry.
On Monday, De Beers’ customers turned up at the first day of the miner’s January sight to find rough prices were down by an average of 10% to 15%. The reductions were more drastic than many had predicted.
The drops ranged from slight adjustments for the more in-demand smalls, all the way to an estimated 20% to 25% cut for 2- to 4-carat, lower-clarity rough, sources said.
Sightholders usually celebrate a price decrease, since their margins can be thin at the best of times. But, immediately, the industry started asking the obvious question: Will this cause polished prices to fall?
The basic assumption is that cheaper raw materials mean cheaper end products. Yet the situation with diamonds is more complicated.
First, there are different ways of pricing polished. You can sell based on the current cost of replacing the goods — a method that would imply polished prices should fall, since De Beers rough is now cheaper. However, it’s also possible to price according to the input cost, with the vendor aiming for a certain profit based on how much the rough actually cost. This would, in theory, mean the latest drop in rough prices would not impact polished until around March, when the new, cheaper material enters the market as polished.
Still, most sightholders that spoke to Rapaport News this week don’t expect polished prices to suffer — though the people who buy their polished might disagree. The miner’s move, sightholders argue, was merely an adjustment to polished-price levels and to the price of rough at open tenders and auctions.
De Beers had priced its goods some 15% higher than the rest of the rough market, as it chose to sell less volume since August rather than discounting during the market slump. Its last significant price decrease before this was in July 2023. Since the start of that month, the RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI™) for 1-carat diamonds has fallen 12.5%.
Price drops at De Beers are not always in sync with the market. In recent years, the company has held off reducing prices until crises have eased, as it did in 2020 following the first round of Covid-19 lockdowns. De Beers sold just $216 million in rough at its last two trading sessions of 2023 as it followed this policy amid weak demand.
But the company needs revenue after incurring a loss in the second half of last year. It appears to have chosen the market improvement as an opportune time to stimulate sales.
“In the final quarter of 2023, we saw some stabilization in polished prices, including a number of areas of natural polished now starting to see some price increases,” a De Beers spokesperson said in a statement Wednesday. “Following this stabilization, we have realigned our rough-diamond trading activities, in terms of prices, volumes and supply flexibility, to reflect prevailing industry conditions.”
With the market in flux, De Beers also showed sightholders sample assortments of rough diamonds that indicated the types of goods and prices customers can expect for this year. Based on these so-called “to see” boxes, sightholders were able to apply for additional goods if their need for rough has increased since they submitted their supply applications in mid-December, the spokesperson explained.
However, market participants expect total sales at the sight of $300 million to $400 million — low for January, which is usually a time of post-holiday restocking. The recent season in the US was okay, but Chinese demand remains slow.
Whether sightholders maintain this cautious approach — and De Beers doesn’t sell too much — will be crucial. Excessive buying could lead to a repeat of last year’s oversupply, which ended with India’s two-month voluntary freeze on rough imports. During the recent crisis, De Beers continued selling — albeit at lower volumes — even when competitor Alrosa canceled sales.
At the January sight, De Beers also removed the extra concessions that had allowed sightholders to refuse goods in the final sights of last year without being penalized. The end of this flexibility increases the danger that goods will flood the market and that manufacturers will sell polished cheap to increase cash flow and raise money for rough.
The fact that De Beers diamonds remain relatively expensive could itself support polished prices, since sightholders have no room to offer further discounts.
“There’s no hooray if you look at those prices,” said one sightholder, noting that even the new rates will probably enable businesses to break even rather than turn a significant profit. “It’s just aligning with [reality]. It’s not like you’re going to make 10% [profit].”
Another sightholder agreed the reductions didn’t go far enough — but believed it would likely be up to the trade to drum up polished demand rather than expect further cuts to rough prices.
“If anybody thinks this is a price reduction — no, it’s a halfway correction, and not even achieving the final goal,” he asserted. “But I also believe they won’t do much [in terms of price cuts] after this. I think their expectation is: ‘Listen, we got you 60% of the way. The other 40%, you guys have to jump up now.’”
Revenue at Petra Diamonds declined in the first fiscal half as slow demand and India’s two month buying halt affected the miner’s rough sales.
Sales slipped 9% year on year to $187.8 million in the six months that ended December 31, the company said Tuesday. The drop came despite a 27% increase in sales volume to 1.7 million carats, as like for like prices during the period dropped 13% and the miner offered a weaker product mix, it explained.
Group production grew 2% to 1.4 million carats for the first half, partly reflecting the ramp up to full output at the Williamson deposit in Tanzania. Exceptional rough stones those fetching $5 million or more didn’t contribute any revenue during the period, the miner noted.
Petra is on track to meet its production guidance of between 2.9 million and 3.2 million carats for the full fiscal year ending June 30, it said. However, the miner expects output to come in at the lower end of that range.
The company’s net debt rose to $212.3 million as at December 31, compared to $176.8 million on June 30, it noted. The increase is due to the timing of tenders, the continued lower prices for rough, and the need for capital to resume operations at Williamson and extend the life of the Finsch and Cullinan mines in South Africa, Petra added.
Rio Tinto’s diamond production fell in 2023 following the closure of portions of its Diavik mine in Canada earlier in the year.
Total production dropped 28% to 3.3 million carats for the full year, the company said Tuesday. Rio Tinto completed mining at Diavik’s A418 underground area and at its A21 open-pit kimberlite pipes, it explained. Improvements in the volume of ore produced at the A154N underground partially offset the loss in output from those portions.
In the fourth quarter, output slipped 50% year on year to 659,000 carats, and was down 13% from the previous quarter.
Diavik is Rio Tinto’s sole diamond mine following the closure of Australia’s Argyle deposit in November 2020. The miner’s share of Diavik increased from 60% to 100% in November 2021, when it assumed control of the asset following the inability of its joint-venture partner, Dominion Diamond Mines, to pay its share of upkeep. In November, Rio Tinto also sold its 75% share of the Fort à la Corne diamond exploration project in Saskatchewan to joint-venture partner Star Diamond Corporation, in an effort to focus on metals and minerals.
Rio Tinto will spend $40 million to move into underground mining at the A21 portion of Diavik, which it believes could add more than 2 million carats of rough production, it reported in February 2023. That expansion is due to keep the mine in operation until the first quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, the company did not provide rough-production guidance for 2024.
India will lead demand for natural diamonds in 2024, says David Kellie, CEO of Natural Diamond Council (NDC), as US buyers increasingly switch to lab grown.
“The Indian market remains the strongest growth market in the world because of its strong financial position and changing demographics,” he told The Economic Times, in India.
“Indian women are now financially stronger, and they are driving the demand. The key economic indicators in the US are not yet favourable for a demand recovery in diamond purchase.”
Kellie (pictured) predicts a polarization between the natural and lab grown markets, with a price difference currently at 80 per cent to 90 per cent.
Natural diamonds will become increasingly rare, he said, with no new mines in prospect, and with miners digging deeper, and spending more, to reach remaining deposits.
De Beers reduced rough-diamond prices by an average of 10% to 15% at this week’s sight, aiming to stimulate sales and bring its rates more in line with the rest of the market, sources told Rapaport News.
The miner lowered prices by 5% to 10% for rough under 0.75 carats, with thinner or no reductions for the smallest items that produce melee, sightholders and other market insiders said Monday on condition of anonymity.
Rough weighing 0.75 to 2 carats saw reductions of approximately 10% to 15% on average, while prices of 2-carat and larger goods dropped about 15%, the sources added.
Select makeables — the 2- to 4-carat rough stones that produce SI2 to I2 diamonds — fell more sharply, with estimates ranging from 20% to 25%. This reflects the impact of lab-grown competition on mid-market US demand in the past year, sightholders explained. De Beers does not comment on pricing.
De Beers tends to sell less volume during a downturn and reduce prices only once the polished market has improved. The RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI™) for 1-carat diamonds slid 21% in 2023, the worst year on record for the category, but sightholders reported a moderate uptick in US demand since the holiday shopping season began, though Chinese orders remain weak.
The global market also stabilized as a result of India’s two-month voluntary freeze on rough imports, which ended December 15.
“[In the past, De Beers] didn’t want to change prices because they didn’t know [what the state of the] polished [market] was,” one of the sources commented. “They have an idea where polished is now, and have adjusted rough to polished.”
However, several sightholders said the drops did not go far enough, with De Beers’ prices still above those of outside tenders and auctions and also too high for many manufacturers to make a profit.
Even with the price reduction, the sources expected demand at the sight to be limited, with sales of around $300 million. The trading session, De Beers’ first of the year, began Monday and runs through Friday in Gaborone, Botswana.
Global diamond giant De Beers said it will go ahead with a planned $1 billion investment to extend the life of its flagship Jwaneng mine in Botswana, even as last year’s downturn in gem demand persists.
The Anglo American (AAL.L) unit and the Botswana government, which jointly own Debswana Diamond Company, have approved the spending that will convert the Jwaneng pit into an underground operation.
Debswana said in 2018 it planned an investment to extend the lifespan of the mine by 11 years from 2024. De Beers said the spending is necessary as long-term supply of rough gems is expected to tighten.
Angola last year started mining at its new Luele project, the biggest in the country and one of the world’s largest by estimated resources, despite depressed diamond demand.
“The global supply of natural diamonds is falling, so moving forward with the Jwaneng underground project creates new value for investors,” De Beers CEO Al Cook said.
Demand for rough diamonds has been weak in recent months with India – cutter and polisher of 90% of the world’s rough diamonds – asking global miners to stop selling it gemstones to manage accumulated stocks.
“This investment is aligned with our strategy to prioritise investments in the highest quality projects,” Cook said.
De Beers last year agreed a new diamond sales pact, which will see the government’s share of diamonds from the Debswana joint venture gradually increase to 50% over the next decade.
Africa-focused miners Gem Diamonds and Lucara Diamond have recovered big, high-quality Type IIa diamonds at their respective operations.
Gem Diamonds said on Thursday it had unearthed a 295-carat rough stone at its Letšeng mine in Lesotho, adding to a long list of diamonds over 100 carats found at the operation over the past two years.
The prolific mine is one of the world’s ten largest diamond operations by revenue. At 3,100 metres (10,000 feet) above sea level, Letšeng is also one of the world’s most elevated diamond mines.
Canada’s Lucara recovered a 166-carat rough in the Coarse X-Ray Transmission unit at its Karowe diamond mine in Botswana. The company said the precious stone was sourced from direct milling of ore from the South lobe of the mine.
The 166-carat rough diamond recovered at Karowe. (Image courtesy of Lucara Diamond.)
Lucara’s latest find is the 328th diamond over 100 carats found at Karowe since it began operations in 2012. Chief executive William Lamb said the recovery further supported the economic rationale for investing in the underground expansion project to extend the mine’s life to at least 2040.
The recoveries bring some positive news into a market affected by ongoing weak conditions, with prices for wholesale polished diamonds dropping 20% last year, which also dragged down rough diamond prices.
The International Gemological Institute’s laboratory in Tel Aviv recently detected a 6-carat lab-grown diamond that someone apparently was hoping to pass off as a natural stone.
The 6.01-carat, pear-shaped synthetic diamond was fraudulently inscribed with the Gemological Institute of America report number for a G-color natural diamond of the same size and shape, but with a few key differences, IGI said in a news release issued Tuesday.
First, the lab said, photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy, which is now widely used by grading labs to separate natural diamonds from lab-grown stones and to identify diamond treatments, shows a wavelength peak of 737 nanometers in the diamond (see chart below).
This is an indicator that the diamond was grown in a factory using the chemical vapor deposition process.
IGI photoluminescence spectra The photoluminescence spectra for the 6.01-carat lab-grown diamond recently examined by the International Gemological Institute
Second, when examined under a microscope, IGI graders saw a carbon inclusion where the feather was indicated on the clarity plotting diagram in the GIA report.
They also noticed a cloud inclusion, resulting in IGI giving the lab-grown diamond a lower clarity grade than VVS1, the clarity grade of the natural diamond.
Lastly, there was a discrepancy between the depth of the diamond IGI examined and the depth noted on the GIA report.
“Everyone in our industry must be vigilant,” said IGI CEO Tehmasp Printer, who took over as head of the lab in October after Roland Lorie retired.
“As attempted fraud increases, the need for ongoing verification is a necessary step to protect consumers from purchasing misrepresented gems and jewelry.”
Sarine Technologies and Gem Certification & Assurance Lab (GCAL) will open a new grading lab in Surat, India, following their business combination last year.
The new location will operate under the GCAL by Sarine banner, benefiting from Sarine’s technological and local expertise as well as GCAL’s grading brand, Sarine said Monday. The merged entity — formed when Sarine acquired 70% of GCAL for $5.65 million in May — already has a grading lab in New York.
“We are delighted to expand our activities into India, and we believe the timing is opportune,” said GCAL president Angelo Palmieri.
Certification and other grading services in both the New York and Surat locations will follow the merged group’s quality standards, Sarine said. The certificates will carry GCAL’s guarantee — a distinctive feature of its grading reports.
“We are dedicated to leading the way into a new era of diamond certification — one that relies increasingly on technology,” said Sarine CEO David Block. “This approach ensures the highest level of grading while introducing unprecedented efficiency. I have full confidence in our partnership and our ability together to take the certification market to new levels of quality and service.”
